Adrian Baldwin
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Gambling, reflections, politics and predictions

5/12/2015

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I am seriously starting to think that I should set aside a pot of cash to have an occasional flutter with. Mrs Baldwin regularly stakes her coin on the National Lottery - her view is that it’s buying into the dream; that it creates a little bit of hope and excitement every week (and that’s worth £2). I have always considered it a bit of a waste of money, which I am sure makes me dull!

There have however been a few instances over the last few weeks where I have been so certain of a particular outcome that I should have put my money on it.

The general election for starters. Back in May 2014 I predicted that the Conservatives would nail it and that the Liberals would get eradicated. I even went as far as stating my money was on the blues. Stupidly, I didn’t actually gamble some cash and rather rued it later - when it became apparent that my predictions were more accurate than the official polls.

Next; the BAFTAs recently took place and I was certain that “Marvellous” would win an award or two. I wrote about the drama back in Sept. 2014 and thought then that it was brilliant - I even own the DVD. Did I put my money on the BAFTAs though…

…of course I didn’t and lo and behold, if I did, I would have won too.

Finally the name for the Duke and Duchesses of Cambridge’s daughter. Once I knew Charlotte was on the list, I was sure that was the name that would be picked. It is after all a terrific name and one I allocated to my own beloved female offspring. Once again though I failed to make the journey to Ladbrokes and must therefore accept that another opportunity to be richer has been missed.

So I am asking myself what I should do next.

For example, I am pretty certain that Lewis Hamilton will win his third F1 drivers’ championship in 2015. Should I gamble £50 on it right now?

The thing is I am not sure because that act of faith could single-handedly wreck Hamilton’s run and then I would feel guilty. If I wasted £50 as well, that would be even worse.

Here’s another prediction – Yvette Cooper will be chosen to lead the labour party. I’ll bet a couple of quid on that just because I would feel some genuine pleasure to see her elected when her boorish, brutish husband, Ed Balls lost his seat altogether.

I am certain that the irony would not be lost on the nation and that having a woman at the reigns might be the ticket to the Labour Party successfully reinventing itself.

And sticking with politics; hearing people moaning about UKIP gaining almost 12.6% of the vote and only one seat in parliament, or the fact that 4.7% of the vote gained the SNP 56 seats in London, just annoys the heck out of me.

The only decent thing the LibDems achieved in the coalition was to get a referendum on changing the voting system in the UK. I bet ‘yes’ in that instance only to find that the majority of the British public wasn’t prepared to take the gamble. More fool all of you that didn’t vote for change then and yet hoped that Farage and his cronies would have some power now.    

So to end this post, my questions for myself are:
  • Where is my local bookie?
  • Is there any etiquette to be observed in entering one of these institutions?
  • Will I actually get around to placing my stake re Hamilton or Cooper?

I wouldn’t bet on it!

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