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Predictive Errors

11/9/2016

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It’s a good thing that I am not a betting man because this year has proved that my prediction skills need some significant work before I should part with my cash.

​This post, created in response to Trump winning the American presidency, reflects on a series of personal miss-calls in 2016.

Though I was worried about the potential, I didn’t think that Trump would win – to me, he is a buffoon to rival Boris Johnson, albeit that he’s not as likeable (in fact, he’s not likeable at all). I couldn’t believe that the US public would vote him in bearing in mind his lack of judgement, inadequate experience, his maverick approach and all that on top of the catalogue of crass things that he said during the campaigning period.

I thought Brexit was a pipe dream and that the British public wouldn’t take the risk with our economy and international standing.

I was sure Lewis Hamilton would win the F1 drivers’ championship again. But Nico Rosberg is firmly in control and looks likely to win (though, like a child with a favoured cuddly toy, I still clutch tightly to hope for Lewis).

2016 also saw Trident renewal get signed off, the Hinkley Point C nuclear reactor approved, Chris Evans stand down from Top Gear and Jeremy Corbyn survive a Labour leadership contest (and actually come back stronger). My hopes/expectations of alternative outcomes…dashed!

​
Oh and I am moving house – I certainly wouldn’t have bet on that at the beginning of the year. 

All in all, I am feeling somewhat bemused and rather out of touch. Is it an age thing, am I losing my grip?

In the office today, one of my colleagues said to me that “if I had put a £1 accumulator bet on Leicester winning the Premier League, Brexit happening and Trump becoming president, I’d be £12million richer”. My response was that at least I saved a £1 – because my predictions would have lost me my stake.

When it comes to gambling, I’ll be more likely to win by making my decision and then actually betting on the opposite outcome.

So with this reverse logic in mind – given that I think that Ore Oduba has a good chance of winning Strictly Come Dancing, I’d better get myself down to William Hill’s place and stake a tenner on Ed Balls.

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